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In an era of routine stadium shows from WWE, major pay-per-views, and each company operating in quick turnaround cycles to the next “big show”, there are few that merit the importance to determine a promotion’s trajectory.
On Sunday, New Japan Pro Wrestling presents Hiroshi Tanahashi’s retirement match as the signature attraction at Wrestle Kingdom 20 and closing the book on a twenty-six-year career.
Multiple generations of fans have been conditioned to dismiss wrestling retirements as meaningless. Still, over the past two years, the opposite has been true, with major send-offs for Sting, Tam Nakano, and John Cena leading to huge business successes for their respective companies.
In Japan, it’s been met with a sold-out Tokyo Dome with an expanded configuration to make this the largest-scale event for New Japan since Antonio Inoki’s retirement in April 1998.
In January 2020, NJPW was riding high with the ability to command two nights at the Tokyo Dome, highlighted by the coronation of Tetsuya Naito, an inter-promotional match with AEW’s Chris Jericho, and the retirement of Jushin Thunder Liger. Within two months, the world shut down due to COVID, and it’s argued that no one paid a greater toll than NJPW, which never fully recovered. Coupled with myriad departures, a rise in popularity for AEW, and questionable booking and handling of its young core, New Japan sank in the ensuing years.
Wrestle Kingdom 20 doesn’t represent a rebirth of the company, but it’s an opportunity to tap the wrestling fan’s shoulder and gain their attention for five hours this weekend. The hook is Tanahashi’s farewell, but the trick will be showcasing what’s on the menu for 2026.
For the wrestling consumer, the retirement is the major draw, but for television executives and New Japan’s infrastructure, this show is as much about Olympic gold medalist Aaron Wolf.
Since June, when the signing was announced, rampant speculation and discourse have permeated with every usage of Wolf placed under an intense microscope. It is rare that a debuting talent is placed with such weight on their shoulders. His involvement has led to Wrestle Kingdom receiving a Sunday night broadcast window in Japan and a mainstream truism that credentialed athletes coming to professional wrestling still evokes curiosity and linkage to New Japan’s history.
Unlike a celebrity match, where the task is limited to a one-night performance and drawing an audience once, Wolf is the hopeful “savior” as New Japan struggles for its north star after the exits of Kazuchika Okada, Tetsuya Naito, Kota Ibushi, Will Ospreay, Kenny Omega, and now Tanahashi.
Limited to run-ins and stand-offs with EVIL and the House of Torture, Wolf has not quelled critics that he is over his skis. There are no strong signs of an “it” factor; the charisma has been lagging and has failed to command the screen when appearing. However, a dynamic performance on Sunday will erase all of that, and for its downside, it’s a perfect utilization of the House of Torture blueprint, where Wolf must overcome all obstacles to prevail.
It’s a high bar for Wolf, and the best comparable is Oleg Boltin, who has taken years to reach his current status and arguably would have flamed out spectacularly if they had opted to build the company around when he arrived.
The card is not limited to Aaron Wolf as the representative of New Japan’s 2026 prospectus. Yota Tsuji is primed as the successor to Hiroshi Tanahashi, telling the outgoing star in a November promo that New Japan will be okay in his absence and is ready to shoulder the burden of moving the company forward. It’s a welcome decision by New Japan to pick a candidate and go all the way with them. For years, it’s been a debate of the positives and negatives of its next-gen class of Tsuji, Yuya Uemura, Shota Umino, and Ryohei Oiwa, and frankly, fans are hungry for new blood.
It feels like there is a short and long-term story for the taking of Kazuchika Okada, putting the “old dog” down for the count, and a closing scene of Tsuji embracing Tanahashi and leaving the Tokyo Dome on a mission to return next year and avenge his mentor’s loss. Okada should not lose this match on Sunday, but rather, maximize the impact of a native star beating Okada for all its worth, rather than booking for the “feel good” moment on the night.
Tsuji is primed for a big year, and Wrestle Kingdom could enhance that run. But the positioning of the other candidates can be questioned on such an important night when the eyes of the industry are on them.
Last year’s IWGP World Heavyweight title challenger, Shota Umino, is paired with Yuya Uemura in the Tornado Ranbo among its twenty-one participants. The positive is that completing the Trio is YouTube star and DDT wrestler Kaisei Takechi, with the hope of Umino & Uemura gaining some rub from the association. It’s an effort, but not the most optimal environment to stand out and be any type of memory once the show is completed.
Breakout tag team Yuto-Ice & OSKAR are also thrown into the Tornado Ranbo as New Japan opted to have the duo defend their tag belts against Zack Sabre Jr. & Ryohei Oiwa at New Year Dash, instead of the big show. Yuto-Ice is one of the breakthroughs of the year, coming back to Japan with a character that has instantly connected, enough to warrant his own singles contest with Hiroshi Tanahashi on the way out.
The foreigners are mainly sectioned off to the ten-man tag as the War Dogs, and Unaffiliated will meet members of the United Empire, including Andrade El Idolo and a mystery partner.
A year ago, it seemed Gabe Kidd was poised for main event-level treatment after one of the best matches of the year with Kenny Omega and a dynamic personality that cut through in the lead-up to Wrestle Kingdom 19. He suffered a major injury at the start of the G-1 and has split time with AEW throughout the year, while the contracts of other members of the War Dogs are coming up, and it remains a question of who is staying and who is seeking work elsewhere.
It’s a reality that New Japan has never contended with until these past few years. For talent, two major companies in WWE & AEW are willing to spend big money for potential stars, and once a performer of the level of Kazuchika Okada is looking outward, it means no one is off limits, and “lifers” are going to be rare exceptions. It’s a star-creating business, but the downside is that once that buzz reaches a boil, everyone takes notice, and it’s a wrestler’s market once that demand is created.
For one night, New Japan has the focus and will feel like the halcyon days of the promotion with a packed Tokyo Dome and the feeling of a red-hot promotion. The reality is it’s a company in massive transition, and its presentation and Sunday is its “Open House” to the public. Monday’s New Year Dash is its referendum, whether that fan who swooped in for Tanahashi’s final match is interested in what else the promotion offers.
Many shows are the direct result of marketing, creating the right attraction, and demand, with the results evident in the business metrics of said show. Wrestle Kingdom 20 will be a one-night blockbuster, but its success will not be judged on January 4, 2026, but rather, one year from now.
